Why Is Georgia Drifting Back Towards Russia?

Georgia’s potential Russian realignment has become a focal point of international concern. Recent actions by the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party suggest a concerning shift in political orientation. Over the past two to three years, these actions have led to escalating tensions with both the European Union and the United States, signaling a potential departure from Georgia’s previously stated aspirations for Western integration. The implications of this shift are far-reaching, affecting Georgia’s domestic policies, international relations, and long-term geopolitical standing.

The “Foreign Influence” Law and Political Repression

One of the most significant indicators of this shift is the reintroduction and subsequent passage of a controversial “foreign influence” law. This legislation, mirroring similar laws in Russia, mandates that organizations receiving a certain percentage of their funding from foreign sources register as “agents of foreign influence.” Critics, including numerous international observers, argue that this law is a thinly veiled attempt to suppress dissent and consolidate the GD party’s power, particularly in the lead-up to upcoming elections. Newsweek has extensively covered the widespread protests against this law, highlighting concerns about its potential impact on independent media and non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

The law is viewed as a direct threat to Georgia’s democratic institutions. By labeling independent media and NGOs as foreign agents, the government creates a climate of suspicion and distrust, hindering their ability to operate effectively. This, in turn, weakens civil society and limits the space for critical voices to be heard. According to The Jamestown Foundation, the law is a key tool in the GD party’s strategy to maintain its grip on power, regardless of the potential damage to Georgia’s international reputation and its relations with the West.

Economic Dependence and Political Leverage

Georgia’s economic reliance on Russia is another critical factor contributing to its potential drift. Despite strong public sentiment favoring Western integration, the GD government has increasingly emphasized the economic benefits of cooperation with Russia, particularly in the face of Western sanctions. This dependence gives Moscow considerable political leverage over Georgia, influencing its foreign policy decisions and limiting its ability to fully align with Western interests.

Specifically, Georgia remains heavily reliant on Russia for trade, gas imports, and investments. The OSW Centre for Eastern Studies has reported a substantial increase in trade between Georgia and Russia since the start of the war in Ukraine, largely due to Georgia’s refusal to join Western sanctions against the Kremlin. This economic relationship provides Russia with a significant source of revenue and strengthens its influence over the Georgian economy. The GD government has also actively pursued economic opportunities with China, further diversifying its economic partnerships away from the West.

Capitalizing on Fear and Conservative Sentiments

The Georgian Dream party has skillfully capitalized on the Georgian people’s fear of conflict with Russia. This fear, deeply rooted in Georgia’s history of conflict with its northern neighbor, has been used to justify closer ties with Russia and to deflect criticism of the government’s policies. The GD party has also actively fueled conservative sentiments within Georgian society, portraying the West as a threat to traditional values and promoting a narrative of national sovereignty and independence from external influence.

This strategy has been particularly effective in appealing to certain segments of the Georgian population who are wary of Western liberal values and who prioritize stability and security above all else. By framing the choice as one between Western interference and peaceful coexistence with Russia, the GD party has been able to garner support for its policies, even among those who may not fully agree with its pro-Russian stance. As Sky News reports, this approach has contributed to a growing sense of disillusionment with the West among some Georgians, making them more receptive to the idea of closer ties with Russia.

Fragmented Opposition and Russian Influence

The weakness and fragmentation of the opposition in Georgia further contribute to the GD’s ability to pursue its current policies unchecked. A divided opposition struggles to present a united front against the ruling party, making it difficult to effectively challenge its decisions or to offer a viable alternative vision for Georgia’s future. This internal division is exploited by the GD party to maintain its dominance and to push through policies that would otherwise face greater resistance.

Russia’s military presence in Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia serves as a constant reminder of potential Russian pressure. This ongoing occupation, which dates back to the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, underscores Georgia’s vulnerability and reinforces the perception that Russia remains a significant threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity. The GD party has used this threat to justify its cautious approach to Russia, arguing that any actions that could be perceived as provocative could lead to further Russian aggression.

Ultimately, Georgia’s apparent drift back towards Russia is a complex phenomenon driven by a combination of political, economic, and security factors. The GD party’s pursuit of closer ties with Russia, coupled with its efforts to suppress dissent and consolidate its power, raises serious concerns about the future of Georgia’s democracy and its relationship with the West. The international community must closely monitor the situation and take appropriate measures to support Georgia’s democratic institutions and its aspirations for Western integration.